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"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up."

Arthur Koestler 

Monday
Feb202017

Why Trump Will Lose: The Economy

As Trump himself said during the election, no matter who is elected, the next president will have to deal with an economic crisis. Trump used the adjective "massive." I think it will happen this year or early 2018. I predicted this in 2014. Of course I could be wrong and there are a number of things that might delay it. But unless the business cycle has suddenly been abolished, it will happen. The only question is when and how bad it will be. 

Trump's tax plan might delay it as massive tax cuts will be a strong, but temporary, stimulus. But the best outcome for Trump is for the slump to come sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, massive tax cuts and spending increases would delay the inevitable, and make it worse. Some are predicting that the recession will be delayed until 2019. 

My update on my 2014 prediction is that it will not be as bad as 2008, but there are plenty of things Trump could do to make it a lot worse. I know the perception is that I am pro-Trump, but in fact, it seems likely that Trump will screw this up badly. I do agree with his policy not to have a war with Russia, and stop mucking around in other countries, but beyond that I do not agree with him. 

Here is David Stockman, Reagan's director of OMB, Office of Management and Budget, on the coming crisis. I am not as pessimistic as he is, but I think he is right.

 

Sunday
Feb192017

Why Trump Will Lose: Wars and Rumors of Wars

One reason Trump was elected is that he indicated that he would not go to war with Russia. But he made no such promise in the Middle East. Trump did say that the US would stop interfering in other countries, but seemed to exempt Islamic terrorists from this. To a large decree this makes sense, but the execution of it is paved with difficulties.

The Intercept tells us

The New York Times yesterday reported that military officials had been planning and debating the raid for months under the Obama administration, but Obama officials decided to leave the choice to Trump. The new president personally authorized the attack last week. They claim that the “main target” of the raid “was computer materials inside the house that could contain clues about future terrorist plots.” The paper cited a Yemeni official saying that “at least eight women and seven children, ages 3 to 13, had been killed in the raid,” and that the attack also “severely damaged a school, a health facility and a mosque.” 

Trump has an opportunity to be a different kind of president. So far, we are not seeing that in the area of foreign policy in the Middle East. No one voted for Trump to continue Obama's foreign policy. (The whole article is worth reading if you are interested.) 

Of course the phrase "Why Trump Will lose" is subjective. The idea I have in mind for winning or losing in these posts is the idea of electoral success. Mucking around the Arab world might actually help Trump with most voters. 

I am not one of them. 

Saturday
Feb182017

Tradition

Since I will have an exerpt of this song on the blog in the near future, I thought I would give you a preview for your enjoyment today. 

 

Friday
Feb172017

Podcast on the Trump Crisis with Russia

If you want a concise discussion of hte current attempt to force Trump to "toe the line" dictated by the power structure, the Deep State, listen to this podcast. It is worth the investment of your time. 

Thursday
Feb162017

Why Trump Will Lose: Treason

When Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden released information that was classified, they committed treason. This is not in dispute. But a reasonable question is whether or not it was justified. Manning released videos of war crimes that were not being prosecuted. They still are not. Snowden released information that the government was spying in ways that it was denying. They still are denying, even under oath to Congress. What would I have done in these circumstances? I have no idea. 

In the same way the recent release of classified information that led to the resignation of General Flynn as National Security Advisor to Trump was also treason. One cannot just release whatever one wants if it is classified. Trump's private call to the Prime Minister of Australia was leaked, as was a private conversation with Israel on settlements, as was the private conversations with the President of Mexico. The purpose is obvious, to make Trump's independent foreign policy either not so independent, or make it devolve into chaos, which will be blamed on Trump's personality. I find it difficult to see how these leaks can be justified, especially as no transcripts of Flynn's phone calls has been released so we have no idea what was said. 

This attempt to lead the US into war with Russia is treason. Even though some are saying that Trump not going to war with Russia is treason. All possible effort is being made to sabotage the president's foreign policy. 

In the past it was seldom that I would agree with Dennis Kuchinch. This is one of those times. 

Why does this mean that Trump will lose? It is because the entire governmental structure is against Trump. I do not see how he can win. Already my FaceBook feed is filled with those actually advocating treason against the elected president of the United States. It will not end well. 

I will post a link to the next podcast of Steven Cohen and John Batchelor on the crisis. Cohen has been predicting that the intelligence community and the neo-cons would attempt to make peace with Russia impossible. The resignation of Flynn, a voice of reason in the Trump administration on Russia, is the first step.