1. 40% of Ukraine's electric grid has been destroyed. The destruction centers on substations which could, theoretica

In economics and business decision-making, a sunk cost (also known as retrospective cost) is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Sunk costs are contrasted with prospective costs, which are future costs that may be avoided if action is taken. In other words, a sunk cost is a sum paid in the past that is no longer relevant to decisions about the future.

I suggest that Wikipedia add this photo to its definition of sunk costs. 

Spending is 6.2 trillion. This includes 1.2 trillion for social security and 760 million for Medicare. Naturally as I am 68 I would opposite cuts there. A joke, but still a true statement form me that shows the problem. Politically such cuts seem unlikely anyway. So other spending is 4.2 trillion. The estimated deficit is 1.3 trillion. So to balance the budget we need a 30% cut.

But I left something out. Interest of federal debt is 400 billion a year. This is headed up as interest rates rise. So assuming the US doesn't repudiate its debt the ratio is 3.8 trillion with a deficit of 1.3 trillion or a cut of 34%. 

We are doomed. I was going to use a different word, but this is a family blog. 

Minute Maid juice used to cost $1.89, then it was $2.09, then 2 for $4, now $2.29. So in the last year it has gone up 21%. So did we grin and bear it? No, we quit buying it. 

Biscuits and gravy at Casey's went from $2.49 to 2.99. A 20% increase. The family member that eats this did grin and bear it. Red Bull at Casey's was 3 for $5, competitive with Wall mart. Now it is 3 for $6. A 20% increase. In this case now this is purchased at WallMart. I would frequently buy Casey's ice tea for $1. Now it is $1.39. I no longer buy it. 

Arby's had a 2 for six special, now it is a 2 for $7. A 16% increase. They did add cheese to one sandwich, so let's say it is an 8% increase. 

You  can see the difficulty in measuring inflation. The consumer quits buying, they buy a substitute, or they do not change thier buying habits.  My guess is that the current method underestimates inflation. Inflation is roughly 8% by the current calculation. The old method used in the 70's, if it was still used, would peg inflation at 18%. This seems too high. You no doubt have heard that inflation is the highest in 40 years. This is false. Inflation now is higher it was in the late seventies, if the same method of measurement was used. Inflation is the highest it has been since the Civil War. 

Biden thinks that inflation is up hardly at all.

"put this in perspective" and that the inflation rate month-to-month was "up just an inch, hardly at all."

He is wrong. 

Well at least Lucky Strikes are 2 for $6.  I wish I smoked. 

Can you blame anyone not believing anything we are told?

As for the current vaccine mandate: we were told that postal workers are exempt; we are told they aren't. Biden promised to push aside any governor that opposed the mandate. The mandate is clearly unconstitutional, and yes I am aware of the case in the 30's. A fine is different than the destruction of a person's livelihood. Biden is clueless, but I am sure his handlers know that it is unconstitutional. But imagine the rhetoric one year from now when it becomes clear that vaccination is not working: "If only we were allowed to mandate the vaccine all would be well." 

What would the usual suspects say if Trump was doing this? 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yLHGTJjHXLo&feature=share

Expect more anti-Chinese propaganda. While I do not think the blood will be in the straits of Taiwan, there will be constant pressure in the area. Ships will provocatively sail between Taiwan and China.  More stories about concentration camps in China will surface. 

Expect more stories about N. Korea and an expanded nuclear program there.  But they have nuclear weapons, so I don't expect blood there. 

Expect more sanctions against Russia.  Ukraine, with the support of the West, just shut down all opposition media. The main opposition leader is under house arrest. The US equivalent would be to arrest Trump and shut down Fox News. But blood here is unlikely as the US does not want to lose all thier dinosaurs called aircraft carriers. 

That leaves Iran as no one likes them anyway. They have kept the agreement they made with the world. The US broke the agreement. 

it is always possible a new theatre will be selected. Africa immediately comes to mind.

So who knows where the crisis will appear. All this pressure will be placed against all these artificial foes. (We have always been at war with Eurasia.) Any of these hot spots could flare up. Whoever is in charge of the US, and it is not Biden, is incompetent. We have not seen such incompetence since the USSR in the 80's and 90's.

But there will be blood. The US needs a short victorious war. 

The first is that the "good kids" on Tik Toc applied for tickets to the Trump rally in Tulsa and this meant less attendance. The second is that Trump is not popular since he can't fill an arena. Hmm. 

The way the world works is that most people will not read the articles but only see the headlines. This means that public opinion has been shifted to the desired outcome. This is why I think Trump will not be reelected. The low engagement portion of the 25% that have not made up their mind will only see the headlines about Trump and his various mistakes. Low engagement Trump people will get discouraged as he is doomed. Low engagement Anti-Trump voters will be encourage by the "good kids." 

These are the facts as I understand them. 200,000 people asked for tickets more than the seating capacity of the arena. This means that there was no assigned seating. This means that the "good kids" brigade had no effect on the rally. With the virus, it is naturally that many would not attend. There was a riot at at least one metal detector at an entrance, this made entry difficult. As one headline put it, 1000's were not able to enter the venue. 

The manipulation of the facts continues. 

The change will vary from person to person. While these changes for me will be until the end of the year, by that time habits are made and habits are difficult to change. Just as the Great Depression influenced several generations, this will as well. Here are my changes.

I go to church twice a month. I would go every week but the trip for the church of my choice is over an hour one way. I doubt I will go for the rest of the year, maybe not until next spring. My church has a fall convention, I have gone every year, with one exception when I did not feel conformable driving for health reasons, for almost 40 years. I will not go this year. For many people this will become a permanent habit.

I go to a restaurant 3 times a week. I have not been for two months, except for 2 drive ins. I will not go again until next spring. I expect that restaurants will open up June 1, later than everything else. Since many customers will not be there, I predict many restaurants will not open up. Locally three restaurants already closed before the crisis. One is already been converted to apartments. How many will never reopen? This will effect the economy, and has already resulted in crops being plowed under since those productss were designed for restaurants. On a personal note, I am a landlord for a restaurant.

We need to buy a couch, and a mattress. (The mattress is old, and humorously was probably used by JFK and Marilyn  Monroe.) I doubt we will buy them this year. I will probably buy a sauna for its health benefits, but that is it. A new car would also be a normal purchase right now, I have never had a car with 135,000 miles before. I will wait. Decisions like this will cascade through the economy.

We are considering moving back to San Diego. This would entail buying a house there and selling the one we live in now. Prices will drop substantially, but that effects me on both ends. I doubt I will buy a house this year. These plans may change permanently.

Retailers will be hit rather hard. While Amazon is not the cheapest, it is convinent and has a larger selection. Habits are hard to break. Since I am a retailer and rent to retailers, I may be hit hard. This will also greatly effect the economy. Retail workers buy things.

To a degree I think these changes are permanent. Things will not go back to normal.

The flu spreads relatively slowly at 1 person infects 1.2 people every 5 days. The estimates I have seen for this new variant is 3. 1,3,9,27, and so on. This combined with a higher death rate than the flu is the reason this virus has been declared a pandemic. 

While it has been 40 years and we still do not have a vaccine for the aids virus, we are promised a vaccine any day now. It isn’t going to happen, not that soon anyway. We have our infection peaking and on the downturn by May first or earlier, and at that time the lockdown policy will have to be changed, and infection fronm the virus will reassert itself. Infection will probably drop down in the summer and then come back this fall. 

It is not looking good, but we will be like Gloria Gaynor.