GDP Mess

As you probably did not notice the government is changing how it calculates GDP. There have always been some anomalies in GDP. When one of my friends married his nanny, GDP went down by the amount of the salary that he no longer paid. But is it a coincidence that the changes that are being made will increase GDP? Was it a coincidence that the changes that were made to the calculation of CPI made twice over the last 30 years decreased the stated inflation rate? I will leave the answer to you to supply.

If you are interested in the details of this change you can watch this rant from Peter Schiff.

“War Dog’s Coin”

Vox Day fighting evil. Vox Day may singlehandedly save Fantasy as a genre. While this is obvious hyperbole, this short story is a great addition to Fantasy, as is the whole world it represents. Rather than try to reinvent the wheel, Day uses the various fantasy races that we already know and love. (Although only a mother would love an Orc.)

The first story, "War God's Coin," revolves around a grizzled sergeant who wants to survive the next battle, even though outnumbered more than usual. What makes this story work is the good characterizations of the people. Each one “comes to life.” Too many times the characters in Fantasy are all the same and bear a striking resemblance to the author.

I do not picture the Demon Cats this way, but you try to find menacing were cats. The second story is called “Qalabi Dawn.” While some have critiqued Day for stereotyping of Elves, Orcs, Goblins, and so on, I have liked this aspect of the series. But in this story Day has taken the concept of lycanthropy (ability to change into a animal-like creature—as in werewolves) and given it life. In fact, the culture of these desert peoples is so interesting and believable that I am hesitant to call them were-creatures since they are children of demons, just as others in Selenoth are children of angels. Maybe it would be best, although I have great reluctance to call them this, to call them Cat People-or possibly Demon Cats. The creatures are so alien that they are difficult to quantitify and that is a great part of thier appeal. (I was hoping for some wereseals in Selenoth, but I guess I will have to wait for them.)

I am looking forward to reading more about the tribes of the Qalabi and about the conversion of the Sergeant to the priesthood, if I am reading the story correctly.

Note that I received a review copy for this review. 

I Needed This

With all my heavy economic talk lately, I needed this. You might too. 

Yogi Berra Was Right

The debate among the "hard money" types about the near future cannot be settled. It is like Yogi Berra said, "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." 

How can one predict with certainty how a future president or Federal Reserve Chairman will act? 

Peter Schiff thinks that they will print money, and then print some more, and then some more. He may be right. Mish Shedlock thinks that they will not do so because this would be stupid and it may not even be possible. John Mauldin thinks that there will be a crisis, but good ol’ American knowhow will prevail. I have no idea and this is the reason I have been talking about the impossibility of making investments. The reason I do not think that Schiff is right is that I cannot see the "powers that be" doing something so against their own self interest as hyperinflation. My thinking is to combine all these viewpoints. Yes, there will be inflation, but it will not be hyperinflation. Yes, there will be a partial repudiation, not of the US debts, but the Social Security and Medicare promises—especially Medicare. There is really no choice. 

Here is an argument between Mauldin and Schiff at the Cambridge House conference I attended in February. I saw it live and it was a lot of fun! 

Future Shtick

For the last three Tuesdays I have shown cheesy videos from the 70's available on YouTube. I bet you were hoping that was enough. Alas, here is one more. 

Future Shock was a well-received "futurologist" book that I remember reading. Alvin Toffler was the author, and he became best buddies with Newt Gingrich in his later years. Orson Wells was only a shadow of his former self (metaphorically), and his voice was available for productions like this for a reasonable fee.  Wiki describes the term Future Shock to mean "too much change in too short a period of time."

Maybe I should write a book called Future Shtick. I could say things like the Amazing Criswell who in Plan 9 from Outer Space said that "the Future is where we will spend the rest of our lives." Never were truer, or dumber, words spoken. 

Moore's Law states that every two years the power of a computer chip will double and the cost will halve. Thus things that seem like Science Fiction become science fact. I think that eventually this will stop. Compound growth cannot continue forever. As Herb Stein once said, if something can't continue, it won't continue. But for the near term this will continue and us old fogeys will continue to receive more change than we can handle. 

Be sure to notice the height of 1970's technology in this documentary, especially the 8-track tapes!