Animusic

I own the entire series. 

Concentrate Your Mind

"Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."

Boswell: Life

This is the exact situation we find ourselves in. The West is pedaling madly toward an economic cliff, yet no one is focused on it. 

The Democrats are acting like a drunken sailor on shore leave who has just been paid. No, wait, that is not fair to drunken sailors. When drunken sailors run out of money they stop drinking. Spending more money will not help. 

The Republicans think that in an era of 1.3 trillion dollar deficits we can cut taxes, and continue to pay Social Security, without reform, for those over 55. We can continue to spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined, they say, ignoring the effect of a collapse on military spending. 

Libertarians, and some Republicans, think that instead of reforming Medicaid, they can take the money that the federal government is currently spending on Medicaid, and give it to the states in a block grant. Of course they do not say where the money will come from for the states to pay the benefits as health care continues to grow at unsupportable rates. The Libertarian party favors open immigration, yet neglects to say how the free health care will be provided. The Libertarian platform is better, but it still ignores important issues and pretends. 

Economically, we are all about to be hung.

I look at the churches in my tradition. The conservatives think they can repeat the successes of the past without adopting the techniques of the future. The "progressives" think they can, by their superior seamanship, sail their ships to success. Can a rowboat survive a demographic tsunami? 

Both groups just seem to get older and older. When I visit such a church I am one of the younger people there. I am 58. 

Religiously, we are about to be hung. Our carcasses will lie in the desert, but there will be no one to burn the dead. 

Am I pessimistic? Yes, yes I am—but not necessarily on a personal level. We can prepare economically for the economic earthquake ahead. Make yourself the best employee at work. Serve your customers, fulfill their needs. 

As I have put it to many in my church tradition, regardless of the situation, each of us needs to soldier on. Serve and love your neighbor, what you sow will be what you reap. 

I feel that my mind is as concentrated as it has ever been since I see the hanging coming. 

Do you see the barbarians at the gates? 

Currency Collapse

I have been reading from Currency Wars by James Rickards. It is an interesting history of the recent currency troubles of the last century. One of the worst episodes was in Germany in the 20's. Here is what he said about that crisis:

In one incredible five-year stretch from 1977 to 1981, cumulative inflation was over 50 percent; the value of the dollar was cut in half. U.S. citizens in this period made the same analytic mistake as their counterparts in Weimar Germany had in 1921. Their initial perception was that prices were going up; what was really happening was that the currency was collapsing. Higher prices are the symptom, not the cause, of currency collapse.

Is the United States headed for such a collapse? I doubt it. But it is not impossible. Obama may “get religion” and start cutting the deficit. Romney may be lying to us now for the election, but he actually has a plan to save us. Maybe Glinda, the good witch of the North, will cast a magic spell and give us ruby slippers to solve the transportation crisis. As my son Daniel used to say when I would tease someone outrageously, "Anything is possible."

I would not rely on Glinda or magical ruby slippers.

What do I expect?

I expect that inflation will be 10 to 20% and so will unemployment.  At that point whoever is President will be forced to act like Reagan did and appoint someone like Paul Volker and we will have a few rough years but eventually come out of it a smarter nation, but no longer the only superpower in the world.

This makes me an optimist. God help us.

The Great Recession

I thought I would post this video because it describes my view of how we got into the economic mess we are in, and how to get out of it. I do this in spite of the fact that a large portion of the documentary is in Spanish with English subtitles. And in spite of the really annoying guy in the rocking chair rocking back and forth rapidly.

"fraud. why the great recession" (official version) from amagifilms on Vimeo.

What Would Jesus Do?

There may be a few more people with whom Jesus is angry.