Cutting the Military

The US cannot afford the military it now has. If the US military is exempt from any cuts, then the rest of the budget must be cut so substantially that it would be catastrophic. Back in the time when the US actually had an enemy, the man who was president, Dwight Eisenhower, actually knew more about the military than any president we ever had. What did he do? David Stockman in his new book The Great Deformation tells us:

The nearly one-third reduction in real defense spending during the Eisenhower period was thus achieved by sharp changes in priorities and force structure. These included shrinking the army by nearly 40 percent, large cuts in naval forces, and an overall reduction in military personnel from about 3.5 million in early 1953 to 2.5 million by December 1960.

As a conservative I am supposed to worship at the altar of Ronald Reagan. But Stockman actually worked for him. Here is his description of military spending under Reagan:

As indicated, constant-dollar spending in Reagan’s fiscal 1989 budget was 30 percent, more than Eisenhower’s last budget, but even the subsequent official end of the Cold War resulted in only a modest rollback. Clinton’s final budget was a tad smaller in inflation-adjusted dollars than Eisenhower’s, even though by the year 2000 the United States had no industrial state enemy left on the planet.

Well, at last we can be happy that Obama is president and the insanity will stop. No, not so much. Stockman explains:

In fact, inflation-adjusted defense spending in fiscal 2011 of $670 billion was a new record, eclipsing even George W. Bush’s final war budget. It was thus abundantly evident that even an out-and-out “peace” president is no match for the modern warfare state and the crony capitalist lobbies which safeguard its budgetary requisites. Indeed, Barack Obama pushed the frontiers of the warfare state further than ever before. Beating his mandate for plowshares into an even mightier sword, the peace president pushed defense spending to a level 80 percent greater in real terms than General Eisenhower.

All these quotes are from pages 215 to 218 of The Great Deformation.

I suppose that neither liberals nor conservatives should read The Great Deformation, at least not unless they are taking their blood pressure meds.

While I am only guardedly pessimistic, and Stockman is totally pessimistic, the crisis that is coming will not be a happy time. I hope I am wrong.

Here is a part of the most ignored speech ever made.

Why Be a US Ally?

Henry Kissinger once said that "being a US ally is often more dangerous than being its enemy." This is obviously true. 

Qadhafi no doubt felt that way as he lay in a ditch in Tripoli dying.  He had given up his anti-US stance and became an "ally." Do you think I am wrong on this? Look at this mini article from 2009 about John McCain's trip to Libya. 

Sen. John McCain, visiting Libya this past week, praised Muammar Gaddafi for his peacemaking efforts in Africa. In addition, McCain called for the U.S. Congress to expand ties with Gaddafi's government, according to Libya's state news agency. 

McCain had a face-to-face meeting with Gaddafi, which he detailed on his Twitter page with the following message:

Late evening with Col. Qadhafi at his "ranch" in Libya -- interesting meeting with an interesting man. 

After once being designated a state sponsor of terrorism in the wake of the Pan Am bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland, Libya has seen its diplomatic ties fully restored under the Bush Administration in return for dismantling its nascent nuclear program. Since then, Libya has been instrumental in securing peace deals between warring factions in Africa.

McCain is the poster boy for the military industrial complex. Third World politicians would have to be brain dead not to get the picture. 

Hosni Mubarak, former president of Egypt, according to former VP DIck Cheney, was a good friend of the US. He is in prison right now, held by the US' new best buddy, the Moslem Brotherhood. Vice President Biden called him a good friend as well. 

These two examples have to give a moment’s pause to leaders who might support the US in its fight against terrorism. 

US support of terrorists in Syria is another example. While Syria and the US are not best buddies, Syrian support in the war on terror was well known. Here is an example of this I talked about before. Except for Lebanon, this was the Syrian government policy, no doubt based on the old philosophy that the enemy of my enemy was my friend. Why would anyone ever help the US again? 

Al Qaida in Syria, the rebels the US supports, recently used chemical weapons. The idea was to frame the Assad government and force US intervention. I am not sure if the US government’s repetition of this is stupidity or just another lie. The US has used this type of operation before in the Spanish American War. I blogged about it before. BTW this is my second most popular blog post. 

But ultimately it does not matter. Just as the bread (food stamps), circuses (TV), and the legions of Rome (Or the huge US Navy) led to its downfall, so the same will happen to the US. 

Yes, the crisis I see coming in 3 to 7 years will not be pretty. But I still am guardedly pessimistic, and I think that the US empire will continue for decades as the US, as bad a shape as it is in, has the cleanest dirty shirt around—even China may be in worse shape. 

Prepare as best you can. 

The Good Ole Days

Most conservatives pine for the "good ole days." This is mostly based on a mythology of the past. John Adams, the second president of the US, signed into law the Alien and Sedition Acts which criminalized speech. The third president, Thomas Jefferson, was no better. His papers revealed that he did things that he knew were unconstitutional. There were no good ole days.

It is rather odd to claim that Obama is the epitome of evil, or to blame Bush for everything. I say a pox on both their houses.

These comments are my introduction to part 2 of Pam Dewey's series on George Orwell's 1984. Orwell did not have to have too much of an imagination—all the various trends that led him to write 1984 were already present in WWI. This is what Pam talks about in part 2 of her series.

For me it is not that government somehow restrained itself in the past. Instead, if there is any worsening, it is a result of better technology available to the powers that be. This does not mean that Orwell's 1984 is not important. In fact, as you read Pam's series, a reading, or rereading, of 1984 is a good idea. It is available for free as a PDF.

Today I have included a discussion with Christopher Hitchens on Orwell from Book TV.

Cause and Effect

I Pity the Fool that Expects QE to Work! Studies show that if you exercise you are healthier. Or do they? While there is a relationship, what is that relationship? If you feel better, you are more active. So is the true relationship between exercise and health that healthy people exercise? These types of studies are not as helpful as one would like.

Stockman, in his book the Great Deformation, points out just such an issue with regard to the Great Depression. Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman made his reputation on his theory of the Great Depression. The current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, was Friedman's acolyte. The theory is that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed letting the money supply drop. But was the Great Depression caused by a dropping money supply, or was the drop in the money supply caused by the Great Depression?

Bernanke, or his probable successor Janet Yeltin, will not allow the money supply to drop. In fact Yeltin, or so the rumors say, is even more of an easy money type than Bernanke. What will she do in 5 years when it becomes clear that Quantitative Easing isn't going to work? This answer to this question is why those that believe in inflation believe in inflation. The cure may be worse than the disease.

As I am guardedly pessimist, I still hope for a trifecta—spending reductions, tax increases, and lots of easy money. I hope I am wrong and this is just a normal recession. We will know in 3 to 7 years.

Shaving Cream

This may be the most important thing I have ever posted for men ...

Or, Maybe not