If He’s Still Hungry, the Country Is Doomed!

The more I read about the fiscal cliff deal made at the last minute, the worse it looks. The devil, or God, is in the details. For every $40 in tax increases there was $1 in spending cuts, basically a rounding error. There was a lot of corporate pork for well-connected campaign contributors like the movie industry. I wonder how much it cost the algae growers of America for their subsidy? Since these subsidies were used to make the tax increases look less, the actual numbers were like this: for every $80 in tax increases on real people there where $40 in subsidies to various Fat Cats and Lord High Mucky Mucks and $1 in spending cuts, er, reductions in hypothetical spending…there were no actual cuts. 

There were also some stealth tax increases that we are only now finding out about. I read one estimate that charitable contributions will go down by $800 million next year as wealthy people realize that they can no longer write off charitable contributions, losing up to 80% of the deduction. 

I am still guardedly pessimistic that in two months there will actually be spending cuts associated with the needed increase in the debt ceiling. We will see if the Republicans are playing to their base by blowing smoke out of a body orifice. 

Here is what Mark Steyn said in his book, After America:

The prevailing political realities of the United States do not allow for any meaningful course correction. And, without meaningful course correction, America is doomed.

What Steyn means by this is not Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome, but an end to those things that made America, America, and made people like Steyn immigrate. Here is Steyn’s waggish summary of the bill: 

A space alien on Planet Zongo whose cable package includes Meet the Press could watch ten minutes of these pseudo-cliffhangers and figure out how they always end, every time: Spending goes up, and the revenue gap widens. This latest painstakingly negotiated bipartisan deal to restore fiscal responsibility actually includes a third of a trillion dollars in new spending. A third of a trillion! $330,000,000,000! Fancy that! In most countries, a third of a trillion would be a lot of money. But in the U.S. it’s chump change so footling it’s barely mentioned in the news reports. Then there’s the usual sweetheart deals for those with Washington’s ear: $59 million for algae producers, a $20 million tax break if a Hollywood producer shoots part of a movie in a “depressed area” as opposed to a non-depressed area, like Canada. I’m pitching a script to Paramount called “The Algae That Ate Detroit.”

Sounds like one of the novelty songs in my collection, “The Cockroach that Ate Cincinnati” or “The Eggplant that Ate Chicago.”  Yes, these are real songs. The chorus of “Eggplant” even now echoes in my mind: “If he's still hungry, our whole country’s doomed.” 

I will conclude this post with a clip from the co-chairs of the Bowles-Simpson Commission on the latest deal. 

The Star Wars That I Used To Know.

Throne of Bones

As a long time reader of fantasy, I look on the current fantasy field and do not like what I see. I have tried and failed to read anything by the prolific Robert Jordan. I may try again as the first book in his long series, the one I could not get through years ago, is available on Amazon Kindle for $1.

So, being familiar with Vox Day's other works, I approached his newest book, Throne of Bones, with a guarded optimism. I found the book good enough that it may reignite my interest in the fantasy genre. Picture a Roman type government in the south, a medieval style government to the middle north of the world, Vikings to the north, with scattered pockets of elves, dwarves, and goblins. Of course there is magic, and, surprising for such novels, most humans are "Christians." If you can picture all this you can picture this world.

The main thing I liked about the book was the good characterizations. Rather than all characters being variations on a theme, most being alike, each of the characters has a unique perspective--the elves are elves and the dwarves are dwarves, for example. The "Roman" characters in conflict each try to do best by their country in their own way, with their own individual personalities.

Except for the occasional demon, there is little stereotypical evil in the book. A personal pet peeve is such characters. Even the semi-demonic Nephilum are not "evil" so much as trying to achieve their goals with a total lack of concern for ethics. This is, of course, what evil is all about, achieving good for yourself by unethical means, as Augustine pointed out centuries ago.

Even the evil human characters have redeeming qualities, just like the real world. The good that evil men do has always been an interesting aspect of humanity, and Throne of Bones, has plenty of this.

I did not like the multiple perspectives. For a novel of this scope, I can see the author had little choice in the matter. I personally prefer smaller stories, less epic in scope. (Thus the four stars I give it, rather than five. There is no way to give it 4 1/2 stars, about where I place the book.)

So if you like fantasy, I would certainly recommend this book. The Kindle price of $5 is very fair.

Ron Paul Interview

Here is the last interview that will be used in the upcoming documentary Bubble. 

Collapse 2013?

My “New Year’s predictions” post I did last week was not received well by everyone. In an homage to the Amazing Criswell, fake psychic of the 60's and 70's, I offered a mix of possible scenarios mixed with outright absurdity. You can count on me to mix absurdities with what I hope are astute observations of the human condition and the current situation. 

Here is one of my "predictions" that I actually think likely. 

All the goldbugs will continue to predict economic collapse. They will be wrong. The strength of the economic system will continue to amaze the naysayers. The dollar is headed up. In the US things will actually improve with modest growth. What do you expect to happen with the Fed printing 1 trillion dollars? Japan will implode, but not in 2013. Europe will implode as well, also not in 2013. The can will be kicked. Buy gold anyway. (Note I am not an investment advisor, but an unpaid satirist.)

This is the most likely outcome, decades of malaise. This actually makes me an optimist. Unemployment will be stuck at 7 to 9% for the foreseeable future. Government deficits will continue in the $700 billion dollar range. Inflation, official inflation, will continue but at a slightly higher rate, 5% or so. Revenues will increase faster than spending so the deficit will gradually decline. The Republicans will be blamed. 

But tipping points cannot be anticipated. So another scenario is along these lines:

If Bernanke can pull off a recovery, he is a superhero! I do not think this scenario likely, but it can not be ruled out. 

Another scenario is that the Great Recession is actually just a normal business cycle recession. Krugman would be in heaven. The one trillion dollar money printing added to the one trillion dollar fiscal stimulus, the deficit, will actually work and save us all. Right. 

Ben Shalom Bernanke would deserve canonization if he pulls this off. The world is full of odd coincidences, the fact that Ben Shalom in Hebrew means "son of peace" is one of them.

On the off-chance that the Son of Peace fails, what should we do as individuals? Reduce debt and increase your personal financial reserves. Do it now, for as bad as the situation is right now, it could get worse.