A Few Words in Defense of Our Country

As you can tell from last Thursday’s post, a Randy Newman song called Political Science, I am on a Randy Newman kick. This song, A Few Words in Defense of our Country, has many uncomfortable truths in it. 

It is always dicey to live in a period when an empire ends. That is the period we are living in. I may not see its end as I am 58, but I can see the cracks in the dam that are pouring out water. Soon, the dam will fail and the water will wash us away. 

Jesus said this in reference to the fall of Jerusalem, which happened about 40 years after his death. (Interesting how certain numbers repeat in the Bible, 40 is one of those interesting numbers.) Luke 19:

^41-44 When the city came into view, he wept over it. “If you had only recognized this day, and everything that was good for you! But now it’s too late. In the days ahead your enemies are going to bring up their heavy artillery and surround you, pressing in from every side. They’ll smash you and your babies on the pavement. Not one stone will be left intact. All this because you didn’t recognize and welcome God’s personal visit.”

Yes, we in America should expect God’s personal visit, but, like first century Judea, we are blind to the coming visit of God. 

The irony is that we have to rely on contemporary musical composers to have any sort of warning at all. 

Simpson-Bowles

Alan Simpson appeared on Capital Account recently. Senator Simpson was co-chair with Erskine Bowles to the deficit reduction commission (often called Simpson-Bowles) which was basically ignored by everyone. He made several interesting points.

But first let me comment on the point Simpson didn’t make. As fellow blogger Eric Anderson pointed out in his commentary on the video, every time that tax increases were offered in exchange for spending cuts, we got the tax increases, but did not get the spending cuts. The main reason for this is that one Congress cannot bind a later Congress. Deficit hawks like me have every reason to be suspicious of promised spending cuts. 

Simpson also explained why Ryan voted against the final Simpson-Bowles commission recommendation. There was one specific reason. Under current law if a business provides health care it can deduct the cost of the health care from its gross receipts. Simpson-Bowles eliminated this deduction. What this would mean is that most businesses would have no choice but to cancel health care for its employees. I would. This would place many employees into the Medicaid system and overload it. The proverbial elephant in the room that no one is addressing, including Simpson Bowles, is health care.

I voted for Perot in 1992. I suggest Poirot for 2012. Simpson’s most important point is that ultimately the market will force the government’s hand. This is another ignored point that I have been harping on since the inception of the prophecy podcast blog. Governments have three basic sources of income: taxes, borrowing, and printing money. The reason we see austerity in Greece, and now Spain, is that they have no choice. They cannot raise taxes any more, nor can they borrow or print money, they have to cut spending.  Tax receipts are going down and no one with any brains will lend them money. Of course the European central bank can print money. The ECB is lending Greece money, and also it is lending to Spanish banks, who then lend to the Spanish government. Europe’s leadership is brain dead. Soon we will find out how many “little gray cells,” as Hercule Poirot would say, the America elites have. I am not hopeful.

Sooner or later the big one will come. Simpson was very pessimistic on how long we have until we “hit the wall.” He said that we could not predict the trigger that will start the next crisis—he said it could be 6 weeks, or 6 months or 3 years. I think that those of us who could be categorized as deficit hawks underestimate the time we have left. The economy is resilient. I have been saying 3 to 7 years. Japan is just now starting this process. If we repeat the Japanese scenario we have about ten years of recession before the big one hits.

My friends and readers that vote have an interesting “Sophie’s Choice.” They can vote for Romney who will decrease the economic risk of catastrophe by a few years, but increase the short term risk by war. Or they can vote for a slightly less warmongering Obama, and let the economic malaise continue unabated.

Here is Capital Account.

Iran on the Edge

While I feel that the coming war against Iran is too dangerous, there is a moderate chance that such an attack will achieve the goals of the US and Israel.

While the report referenced below may be a fake Iran intelligence report, it seems to fit in well with Iran’s problems. 

Excerpts of the report, posted this week on several Iranian websites, revealed that the government might not be able to pay the full salaries of its employees in the coming three months, which threatens the eruption of massive popular protests across the country. 

Large portions of the population might suffer from starvation, the report said, adding that riots are expected to take place in border cities where living conditions are rapidly deteriorating.

According to the report, Iran’s reserve of foreign currency might run out within the coming six month owing to extreme budget deficiency.

Other official reports have stated that Iranian factories are working on only half their capacity, and that a large number of them have declared bankruptcy.

The idea is that one hard push and Iran goes over the edge. It could happen. But just as easily it could unite the Iranian people. Probably the most difficult “action” for anyone is to do nothing when that is the best play. 

The risk is that oil prices will jump if Iran is attacked. I know what my target would be if I was Iran, not the Strait of Hormuz, but the Saudi oil fields. I would already have people in place. I doubt I am any smarter than Iran’s leaders. 

Let's Drop the Big One Now

Randy Newman has had an interesting career. He even had one hit, so he is a "one hit wonder." That song was Short People. 

The song I am sharing today is another song that deserved to be as big a hit as Short People—Political Science. 

What is disturbing about this song is that, based on the various posters I see in my facebook feed, many will not understand that this is a parody until I tell them. So no, Newman is not advocating nuclear war. 

Iran, the Darth Vader of our Time

I have been getting some views on the post I did on the arrival of the 3rd Aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. I realize now that I had oversimplified the situation. While I was quite accurate that Obama would be willing to agree to an Israeli strike if he was behind in the polls to shake things up, I failed to understand that the only way that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, would attack before the election would be to hurt Obama—he supports Romney. So an equally plausible scenario is that he will attack if Romney is behind in the polls. It would be Romney’s October Surprise, not Obama’s. 

In any event, the drumbeats of war just keep getting louder as Israel prepares to attack. Even though Obama does not want an attack before the election, I doubt he would do anything to stop it. A war with Israel is not on his political plate. 

Yahoo News is even on script:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran was just six to seven months away from being able to build a nuclear bomb, adding urgency to his demand that President Barack Obama set a clear “red line” for Tehran in what could deepen the worst U.S.-Israeli rift in decades.

Iran will be attacked. The only question is when. 

I doubt that Iran is any more evil than other countries, who could, on short notice, have nuclear weapons built. These countries include Germany, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and no doubt other countries. Israel has 250 nuclear weapons. It seems to me that Israel is more likely to use their weapons than Iran is. Israel could easily turn the entire Arab Middle East into a parking lot. 2 or 3 bombs could take out Egypt, plus one on their dam on the Nile. 4 or 5 for Saudi Arabia, with a couple tossed into Mecca and Medina for good measure. Syria would be an easy target as well.  Israel would have over 200 bombs left. It would be madness to attack them. 

Maybe Iran is a modern Darth Vader who would ignore the consequences to themselves, but I doubt that they wish to commit national suicide. Iran has no plans to build a nuclear weapon. They may want to be in a position to be able to build one on short notice. I would want that if I were them. 

If you perceive this as anti-Israel, you would be mistaken. The problem is the governments around the world that think they can act immorally and not have it eventually come back to haunt them. 

Let me paraphrase what Paul said in Galatians: “God is not mocked, what a government sows, that they shall also reap.”