Why Trump Will Succeed: Immigration

Trump is using the majority opinion on Illegal Immigration in the states Republicans are likely to win to forge a new electoral coalition. As I said in an earlier blog post, it does not matter what the morality might be. It does not matter what the economics might be, it only matters how people feel about Immigration. (Note that I left out the word illegal in the last sentence.)

Any immigration will tend to reduce wages, it is a simple matter of supply and demand. While to some extent immigration creates its own demand, this factor will not be enough. Unskilled wages, and eventually all wages will go up, if immigration declines. This is especially true with illegal immigration. Wages have been declining for decades. This has not escaped the attention of working class Americans. 

Trump’s opinion on immigration is actually quite in step with the majority opinion in “red” states, the states Republicans need for a successful election. Calling these views xenophobic will actually help Trump as those who hold these views know that it is a lie, and this will drive them to be even more anti-immigration. 

Here is an example from that well know xenophobe, Bill Clinton. The transcription is a little rough, but in general it is correct. You can also listen to it on YouTube.

"We are a nation of immigrants …  but we are a nation of laws"  "Our nation is rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country...  Illegal immigrants take jobs from citizens or legal immigrants,they impose burdens on our taxpayers... That is why we are doubling the number of border guards, deporting more illegal immigrants than ever before, cracking down on illegal hiring, barring benefits to illegal aliens, and we will do more to speed the deportation of illegal immigrants arrest for crimes... It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws that has occurred in the last few years.. and we must do more to stop it." [Standing Ovation]