In The Land of the Blind

One of my favorite sayings is that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. This is my answer to the question I said I would answer last week, "Is the US Toast?" The US is like that proverbial one-eyed man. Things are bad, but they are not catastrophic.

Japan is a bug looking for a windshield, as John Mauldin is fond of saying. If Japan had started a less aggressive program 10 years ago it might have worked, at least that was the conclusion of the John Mauldin show I just saw. Since you have to register, I can not embed the video. Japan is not toast, it is bread so burnt you can not recognize it. (Note that you may have to register if you want to watch this video. Click here.) 

Mauldin did not mention China as it is difficult to invest there. But I stand by my prediction that China is burning toast. It may still be edible toast, but there are huge problems.

Europe is burnt toast. It is still edible, but no one really wants it. I have this gut feeling that selected companies in Europe will do well, but I am not smart enough to pick them. Actually, the main point of the Mauldin video is that no one is that smart so an investor needs to buy indexes and diversify.

Maybe the perception that the US is in better shape than the rest if the world is false. But as long as the rest of the world thinks this is so, it will be so. Thus when the crisis hits in 3 to 7 years, I predict the dollar will increase in value.

In a relative sense things will not be that bad, but if you are the one that gets laid off, you might have a different perspective. The crisis will spread, and it will not be pretty.

Is the US toast? No, things will not be as bad as elsewhere. But things are going to be bad when the fecal matter hits the air circulation device. Are you ready? 

Tip Toe

I am showing my age. If you want to know more about Tiny Tim, click here. 

Deregulation Didn't Work

I risk losing whatever libertarian "creds" I have left by stating the obvious. Deregulation did not work. I suppose I could cover my metaphoric libertarian nakedness by saying that no true deregulation occurred.  While this is true, just try to open a business in California where I live. In some areas the cost of starting a business is so high that profits are unlikely. But that does not explain why deregulation did not work anywhere. 

This argument also risks committing the "No True Scotsman" fallacy.  

The use of the term was advanced by British philosopher Antony Flew:

Imagine Hamish McDonald, a Scotsman, sitting down with his Glasgow Morning Herald and seeing an article about how the "Brighton Sex Maniac Strikes Again". Hamish is shocked and declares that "No Scotsman would do such a thing". The next day he sits down to read his Glasgow Morning Herald again; and, this time, finds an article about anAberdeen man whose brutal actions make the Brighton sex maniac seem almost gentlemanly. This fact shows that Hamish was wrong in his opinion but is he going to admit this? Not likely. This time he says, " No true Scotsman would do such a thing".^[2]

When the statement "all A are B" is qualified like this to exclude those A which are not B, this is a form of begging the question; the conclusion is assumed by the definition of "true A".

It is better to admit your theory is faulty than to develop ever more elaborate excuses. If a template, as I call it here on the blog, fails, then discard it. This reminds me of the astronomic theory that the earth was the center of the solar system with everything revolving around it. As telescopes and observation occurred more and more adjustments had to be made, but the theory remained the template. The adjustments involved the planetary bodies revolving in circles around circles, which revolved around circles. It did not work.

Deregulation did not work either. 

My own theory as to why it did not work involves the evils of centralization. Centralized economies, even capitalistic ones, do not work as well as theory says they should.  When I look at the systems God set up for his people Israel and his people the church they were not centralized. Why should I be surprised that God is not a fan of the centralized system that is our modern Babylon. 

I do have an interesting audio interview from former assistant secretary of the treasury under Reagan-Paul Craig Roberts. He has been going through the same process I have talked about today. Deregulation, as implemented by one of its original champions, the same Paul Craig Roberts, does not work. Robert's recognition of this is the heart of the interview.

Is Wheat the Root of All Evil?

I am always suspicious when one change or issue solves all other issues. Thus I am suspicious of Dr. Davis who attributes much of our modern dietary issues to wheat. 

However with 30% of the US populace having the genes that may express themselves as wheat allergy, celiac disease, and gluten sensitivity, it seems to me that this doctor's argument needs to be considered. (Celiac is a nasty disease that eats away at your small intestine from wheat allergy.) With 20% of our dietary calories coming from wheat, and with 30% of the US population as potential victims of gluten sensitivity, some caution is needed. 

If you decide to watch this presentation, you may be surprised that within modern memory the wheat genome has been drastically changed to a variety that alters the gliadin in wheat which intertwines with gluten. This may be the reason the celiac disease is on the increase. 

On a personal note my doctor took my blood and did a gluten sensitivity. I am very gluten sensitive. This was somewhat surprising as I had no symptoms that I associated with eating wheat. But then again most people don't. 80% of the populace that has celiac disease does not know it. The fact that allergy issues with wheat are much larger than are perceived by the public is not in dispute. 

I had recently lost about 40 pounds by a combination of limiting carbs to 120 grams and limiting calories, or better said I became aware of my calories. 120 grams is way too high to be considered low carb. But while I had limited my bread intake, I had been eating a cereal based on "healthy" wheat germ and the bread I did use was a high protein bread. Care to guess what the first ingredient of the bread was? Yes, that is right, gluten. Healthy wheat germ is filled with it as well. While I had limited my carbs I had probably quadrupled my gluten. This was a major whoopsie on my part. 

Am I saying you should stop eating wheat immediately? No. But I am saying that it is something to think about. I do feel better now that I am not eating any wheat, but of course this could be a placebo effect. While there are various tests, the incidence of false negatives is very high. The best way is to eliminate wheat from your diet for a time and see how it effects you. You must be very strict or you will not know for sure. (BTW this is a lot more involved than not eating bread, wheat is in everything, often unexpectently. Soy sauce is a good example of this.) 

Something to consider, if this doctor is even partially right. 

They Are Watching You

There has been a lot of interest, bordering on hysteria, about the government spying on US citizens. Here is an example from Politico. 

“There is a massive apparatus within the United States government that with complete secrecy has been building this enormous structure that has only one goal, and that is to destroy privacy and anonymity, not just in the United States but around the world,” charged Glenn Greenwald, a reporter for the British newspaper “The Guardian,” speaking on CNN. “That is not hyperbole. That is their objective.”

But since most people are not knowledgeable about history (not everyone was like me and read history books for fun in high school) there is a lot of fear. 

This is where Pam Dewey's latest blog series on Big Brother comes in. While the technology has "improved," there is not much new in government interference in private affairs. This is a long-standing issue, and my prediction for the latest "crisis" is that ultimately no one will care about it. And if the next president is a Republican, the spying will continue. 

Click Here for part 6 of "Oh Say Can You See?"